The impact of COVID-19 on healthcare booking and cancellation patterns: time series analysis of private healthcare service utilisation in Finland.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has had wide-reaching effects on healthcare services beyond the direct treatment of the pandemic. Most current studies have reported changes in realised service usage, but the dynamics of how patients engage with healthcare services are less well understood. We analysed the effects of COVID-19 on healthcare bookings and cancellations for various service channels between January 2020 and July 2021. METHODS: Our data includes 7.3 million bookings, 11.0 million available appointments, and 405.1 thousand cancellations by 900.6 thousand individual patients between the ages of 18 and 65 years. The data were collected from electronic health record data, including laboratory and imaging services as well as inpatient stays, between January 2017 and July 2021. The patients were Finnish private and occupational healthcare customers in the capital region of Finland. We fitted an autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model on data between 2017 and 2019 to predict the expected numbers of bookings, available appointments, and cancellations, which were compared to observed time series data between 2020 and 2021. RESULTS: Utilisation of physical, in-person primary care physician appointments decreased by up to 50% during the first 18 months of the pandemic. At the same time, digital care channels experienced a rapid, multi-fold increase in service usage. Simultaneously, the number of bookings for laboratory and imaging services decreased by 50% below the pre-pandemic projections. The number of specialist and hospital service bookings remained at the predicted level during the study period. Cancellations for most health services increased sharply by up to three times the pre-COVID levels during the first weeks of the pandemic but returned to the pre-pandemic levels for the rest of the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in in-person appointments and the increase in the utilisation of digital services was likely a contributing factor in the decrease of the utilisation of diagnostic and imaging services throughout the study period. Utilisation of specialist care and hospital services were not affected. Cancellations contributed to the changes in service utilisation only during the first weeks of the pandemic.

Time series analysis of the incidence of acute upper respiratory tract infections, COVID-19 and the use of antibiotics in Finland during the COVID-19 epidemic: a cohort study of 833 444 patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trajectories of acute upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs), COVID-19, and the use of antibiotics in Finland during the COVID-19 epidemic. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Electronic medical records from a nationwide healthcare chain in Finland. PARTICIPANTS: 833 444 patients from a cohort of 1 970 013 Finns who had used medical services between 2017 and 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of weekly patients of acute URTIs, COVID-19, and the prescribed number of antibiotics in Finland between 6 January 2020 and 21 June 2020. We estimated the respective expected numbers from 1 March 2020 onward using autoregressive integrated moving average model from 1 January 2017 to 1 March 2020. We assessed the public interest in COVID-19 by collecting Google search trend frequencies. RESULTS: There was a rapid increase in COVID-related internet searches between weeks 10 and 12. At the same time, there was a 106% increase in diagnoses of acute URTIs, from 410 per 100 000 inhabitants to 845 per 100 000. The first COVID-19 cases were diagnosed on week 11. Prescriptions for URTI-related antibiotics declined by 71% (403 per 100 000 to 117 per 100 000) between weeks 11 and 15 while no relevant change took place in prescriptions of antibiotics for urinary tract infections. CONCLUSIONS: At the beginning of the epidemic, many people contacted healthcare professionals with relatively mild symptoms, as indicated by the reduced rate of URTI-antibiotics prescriptions. Our findings indicate that health service providers should be prepared for rapid variations in service demand. Securing access of true COVID-19 patients to proper diagnostics, care and isolation measures may help in preventing the spread of the disease.

Nationwide infection control strategy lowered seasonal respiratory infection rate: occupational health care perspective during the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory infection is the 4th most common reason for absence from work in Finland. There is limited knowledge of how social distancing affects the spread of respiratory infections during respiratory epidemics. We assessed the effect of nationwide infection control strategies against coronavirus disease in 2020 on various respiratory infections (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems code J06) in occupational outpatient clinics. METHODS: We used occupational healthcare data of respiratory infection J06 diagnoses from 2017 to 2020 obtained from the largest health service provider in Finland. The data was divided into three 252 day-long pieces and was weekday-matched and smoothed by 7-day-moving average. The difference in the J06 diagnosis rate between the follow-up years was measured using Pearson correlation. Possible confounding by sex, age, and region was investigated in a stratified analysis. Confounding by respiratory syncytial virus was analysed using nationwide data of confirmed cases obtained from the national registry. RESULTS: In the second quarter of 2020, the trend in the daily number of J06 diagnoses was significantly different from the follow-up years 2019 and 2018. The number of J06 diagnoses peaked between March and April 2020 with roughly 2-fold higher count compared to normal. The timing of these peaks matched with the government issued infection control strategies and lockdowns. Based on stratified analysis, the increase in the number of J06 diagnoses was not confounded by region, age, or sex. Moreover, the rapid increase in the number of J06 diagnoses was not governed by the respiratory syncytial virus. CONCLUSION: Nationwide infection control strategies were effective to slow down the spread of common respiratory infectious diseases in the occupational population.